{"built": "2026-11-02T08:35:35Z", "tool_version": "0.1.0", "studies": [{"slug": "affective-polarization-interventions", "title": "Testing 33 Student-Designed Interventions to Reduce Affective Polarization", "source": "submitted", "repo_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/affective-polarization-interventions", "folder_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/affective-polarization-interventions/tree/main", "report_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/affective-polarization-interventions/blob/main/report.md", "data_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/affective-polarization-interventions/tree/main/data", "study_json_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/affective-polarization-interventions/blob/main/study.json", "release_status": "draft", "registration_status": "registered", "extensions": [{"id": "advance_design", "kind": "mechanism", "label": "Design advance", "brief_id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Perception gap video: replication, mechanism and persistence", "hypothesis": "The full Perception gap video lowers the in-party minus out-party thermometer gap relative to control by about 1.4 points or more. The effect is mediated by reduced misperception of out-party attitudes, so the no-data variant has a smaller effect. Some of the effect remains at about 2 weeks. Undemocratic-practice support does not increase.", "why": "Addresses power and design: it gives the one borderline effect a large pre-registered replication, adds a mechanism measure, and adds a delayed follow-up.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "svg": "extensions/advance_design.svg", "text": "extensions/advance_design.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "kind": "boundary", "label": "Generalizability", "brief_id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Who does the Perception gap video work for?", "hypothesis": "The video effect on affective polarization is larger (more negative) for respondents with larger baseline misperception; effects of party and interest are tested as two-sided preregistered interactions.", "why": "Addresses sample and measurement: the exploratory interactions were too noisy (CIs of \u00b17 points), so a dedicated, powered moderator test is needed.", "debate": null, "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "svg": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.svg", "text": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "theoretical_debate", "kind": "alternative", "label": "Theoretical debate", "brief_id": "theoretical_debate", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Individual message versus structural cue", "hypothesis": "If individual interventions have leverage, the video lowers affective polarization under both primes. If the structural account holds, the video effect shrinks or vanishes under the hostile prime (video x prime interaction > 0).", "why": "Addresses framing: it tests whether individual-level correction is overridden by structural cues, instead of assuming either side.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/theoretical_debate.qsf", "svg": "extensions/theoretical_debate.svg", "text": "extensions/theoretical_debate.txt", "addresses": []}], "sample_kind": "human", "causal": true, "design_diagram": "figures/design.svg", "design_diagram_text": "figures/design.txt", "review_claims": {"supported": 12, "total": 12, "open_analytical": 0, "on_revised_text": true, "corrected": 2}, "doi": null, "doi_version": null, "review_rounds": 1, "potential": {"verdict": "A follow-up is worth running, but only a narrow one. Of 64 tests, two were barely significant and 30 of 32 arms were inconclusive, so the broad screening design should not be repeated. Run the Perception gap video replication with a mechanism measure and a delayed follow-up first, since it is the only affective polarization result and also the largest arm. The McCain defends Obama video effect on undemocratic practices rests on 86 people and is probably noise. The structural-cue and moderator briefs can follow if the replication holds.", "causes": ["power", "analysis", "design", "sample", "measurement"], "debates": ["Can individual-level interventions move polarization, or is it structural?"], "briefs": [{"id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Perception gap video: replication, mechanism and persistence", "needs_qsf": true}, {"id": "theoretical_debate", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Individual message versus structural cue", "needs_qsf": true}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Who does the Perception gap video work for?", "needs_qsf": true}]}, "registration_url": "https://osf.io/k2nwj", "provenance_mode": "fully_agentic", "reviewer_pass": true, "cost_usd": 1.041, "tokens_in": 353604, "tokens_out": 51715, "design_type": "survey_experiment", "population": "online_panel", "country": "US", "constructs": ["affective_polarization", "democratic_norms", "persuasion"], "keywords": ["affective polarization", "feeling thermometer", "undemocratic practices", "interventions", "multi-arm"], "n": 4485, "created": "2026-10-09", "hypotheses": {"registered": 64, "unregistered": 0, "deviation": 0, "robustness": 0, "exploratory": 3, "supported": 2}, "tests": [{"id": "H1:T1", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cooperation infographic", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.9471, "se": 1.589, "p": 0.5512, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T2", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan bills graph", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.3775, "se": 1.537, "p": 0.806, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T3", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan elite quotes", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.7886, "se": 1.34, "p": 0.5561, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T4", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Shared values exercise", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.7988, "se": 1.699, "p": 0.6383, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T5", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cross-partisan dialogue guide", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.02, "se": 3.251, "p": 0.7538, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T6", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Meta-dehumanization correction", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.09809, "se": 1.644, "p": 0.9524, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T7", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception survey (form)", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.384, "se": 1.768, "p": 0.828, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T8", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Common-ground articles", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.586, "se": 1.865, "p": 0.395, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T9", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Patriotic article", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.959, "se": 1.272, "p": 0.1234, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T10", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "14th Amendment video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.751, "se": 1.51, "p": 0.2461, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T11", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Congressional softball video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.215, "se": 1.496, "p": 0.4166, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T12", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "iSideWith quiz", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.3833, "se": 1.333, "p": 0.7737, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T13", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Rick and Morty perspective-taking", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.8868, "se": 1.585, "p": 0.5757, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T14", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bren\u00e9 Brown empathy video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -2.137, "se": 1.592, "p": 0.1795, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T15", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception gap video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -2.307, "se": 0.997, "p": 0.02065, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T16", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "'What makes an American' video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -2.382, "se": 1.402, "p": 0.08927, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T17", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "McCain defends Obama video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.8518, "se": 2.646, "p": 0.7476, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T18", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Egyptian revolution video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.3419, "se": 2.468, "p": 0.8898, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T19", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cross-partisan friendship TED talk", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.9522, "se": 2.04, "p": 0.6406, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T20", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "American history video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 1.355, "se": 2.283, "p": 0.5528, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T21", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Party-tailored videos", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 1.113, "se": 1.64, "p": 0.4976, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T22", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Jubilee free speech panel", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.747, "se": 2.119, "p": 0.4096, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T23", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Jubilee video", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.1626, "se": 2.069, "p": 0.9374, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T24", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Media-profits-from-division image", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.464, "se": 1.909, "p": 0.4433, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T25", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Shared priorities (Pew) table", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.1138, "se": 1.489, "p": 0.9391, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T26", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan legislation examples", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.9692, "se": 1.749, "p": 0.5795, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T27", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Common threat (Russia)", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.8926, "se": 1.787, "p": 0.6175, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T28", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Pro-democracy excerpt", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.3342, "se": 1.304, "p": 0.7977, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T29", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Biden\u2013DeSantis cooperation", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.6859, "se": 1.284, "p": 0.5932, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T30", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Scandals, both parties (labeled)", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -0.4801, "se": 1.799, "p": 0.7896, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T31", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Scandals (labels revealed later)", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": -1.368, "se": 1.718, "p": 0.4257, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:T32", "h": "H1", "text": "Primary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on affective polarization, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception gap quiz", "outcome": "post_ap", "estimate": 0.1903, "se": 2.708, "p": 0.944, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T1", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cooperation infographic", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.03563, "se": 0.08454, "p": 0.6734, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T2", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan bills graph", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.03968, "se": 0.07691, "p": 0.6059, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T3", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan elite quotes", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.1131, "se": 0.08925, "p": 0.205, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T4", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Shared values exercise", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.03995, "se": 0.0859, "p": 0.6419, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T5", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cross-partisan dialogue guide", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.1213, "se": 0.09363, "p": 0.1952, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T6", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Meta-dehumanization correction", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.03705, "se": 0.0643, "p": 0.5644, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T7", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception survey (form)", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.1068, "se": 0.09139, "p": 0.2426, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T8", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Common-ground articles", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.02361, "se": 0.1213, "p": 0.8457, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T9", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Patriotic article", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.05716, "se": 0.05911, "p": 0.3335, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T10", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "14th Amendment video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.08241, "se": 0.07609, "p": 0.2788, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T11", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Congressional softball video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.05443, "se": 0.08721, "p": 0.5325, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T12", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "iSideWith quiz", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.001118, "se": 0.08678, "p": 0.9897, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T13", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Rick and Morty perspective-taking", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.06149, "se": 0.09534, "p": 0.519, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T14", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bren\u00e9 Brown empathy video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.09656, "se": 0.07457, "p": 0.1954, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T15", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception gap video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.006437, "se": 0.05532, "p": 0.9074, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T16", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "'What makes an American' video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.03687, "se": 0.07395, "p": 0.6181, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T17", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "McCain defends Obama video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.1735, "se": 0.08111, "p": 0.03243, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T18", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Egyptian revolution video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.005227, "se": 0.08146, "p": 0.9488, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T19", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Cross-partisan friendship TED talk", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.04757, "se": 0.109, "p": 0.6626, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T20", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "American history video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.06608, "se": 0.08104, "p": 0.4148, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T21", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Party-tailored videos", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.1117, "se": 0.1286, "p": 0.3852, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T22", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Jubilee free speech panel", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.07575, "se": 0.09926, "p": 0.4453, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T23", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Jubilee video", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.001297, "se": 0.07348, "p": 0.9859, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T24", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Media-profits-from-division image", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.1616, "se": 0.09728, "p": 0.0966, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T25", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Shared priorities (Pew) table", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.0141, "se": 0.1032, "p": 0.8913, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T26", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Bipartisan legislation examples", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.04894, "se": 0.08201, "p": 0.5507, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T27", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Common threat (Russia)", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.02832, "se": 0.09336, "p": 0.7616, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T28", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Pro-democracy excerpt", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.1452, "se": 0.1328, "p": 0.2741, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T29", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Biden\u2013DeSantis cooperation", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.1191, "se": 0.1032, "p": 0.2485, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T30", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Scandals, both parties (labeled)", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.01015, "se": 0.08386, "p": 0.9037, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T31", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Scandals (labels revealed later)", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": -0.02839, "se": 0.08835, "p": 0.748, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:T32", "h": "H2", "text": "Secondary (registered): the effect of each intervention (1-32) on support for undemocratic practices, relative to the pure control.", "arm": "Perception gap quiz", "outcome": "post_udp", "estimate": 0.04769, "se": 0.1075, "p": 0.6573, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}], "synthetic": false, "authors": ["Yamil Velez"], "kind": "filedrawer_package", "files": {"data": ["data/clean.csv", "data/raw_tidy.csv", "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "extensions/theoretical_debate.qsf", "survey.qsf"], "scripts": ["original/replication_script.R", "run.sh", "scripts/01_tidy.py", "scripts/02_clean.py", "scripts/03_registered.py", "scripts/04_exploratory.py"], "docs": ["ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.md", "AGENTS.md", "README.md", "RUN.md", "codebook.md", "extensions/advance_design.txt", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "extensions/theoretical_debate.txt", "figures/design.txt", "pap.md", "report.md", "review.md"], "n_files": 64, "n_data": 6, "n_scripts": 6, "data_formats": ["Qualtrics schema", "csv"], "languages": ["Python", "R", "shell"]}, "readme_excerpt": "Testing 33 Student-Designed Interventions to Reduce Affective Polarization Yamil Velez. Adaptive online survey experiment (Lucid Theorem, November 9\u201325, 2022; Columbia IRB AAAU3946) testing 33 interventions designed by students in a Fall 2022 Experimental Design course against a pure control, among partisans. Interventions include videos (e.g. a perception-gap video, a Bren\u00e9 Brown empathy video), articles (e.g. a meta-dehumanization correction, bipartisan legislation examples), images and interactive quizzes; the report lists each one. One intervention, a perception-gap video, significantly re", "summary": "Can brief, student-designed interventions reduce affective polarization? We tested 32 interventions against a pure control in a registered survey experiment on US adults from the Lucid Theorem online panel (6,086 recruited, 4,485 analysed). The primary outcome was affective polarization, measured with feeling thermometers, and the secondary outcome was support for undemocratic practices. The Perception gap video (641 respondents for the primary outcome, 646 for the secondary) lowered affective polarization by 2.3 points relative to control (95% CI [\u22124.3, \u22120.4], p = 0.021). 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"p": 0.5689, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:8", "h": "H2", "text": "Each intervention changes attitudes toward AI relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic", "outcome": "ai_attitudes", "estimate": -0.08155, "se": 0.1581, "p": 0.606, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:9", "h": "H2", "text": "Each intervention changes attitudes toward AI relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic 2", "outcome": "ai_attitudes", "estimate": -0.03272, "se": 0.2284, "p": 0.8861, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:10", "h": "H2", "text": "Each intervention changes attitudes toward AI relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Guide", "outcome": "ai_attitudes", "estimate": -0.001654, "se": 0.1792, "p": 0.9926, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:11", "h": "H2", "text": "Each intervention changes attitudes toward AI relative to control.", "arm": "AI Text Video", "outcome": "ai_attitudes", "estimate": -0.1079, 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relative to control.", "arm": "Automated Flagging", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.02134, "se": 0.06063, "p": 0.7249, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:4", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "AI Accuracy Nudge", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.0008098, "se": 0.05404, "p": 0.988, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:5", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "Breathing Exercise", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.06546, "se": 0.06983, "p": 0.3485, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:6", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "Mindfulness", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": 0.01236, "se": 0.08141, "p": 0.8793, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:7", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "Inoculation", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": 0.03475, "se": 0.06506, "p": 0.5932, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:8", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.1465, "se": 0.06466, "p": 0.02349, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:9", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic 2", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.1001, "se": 0.08128, "p": 0.218, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:10", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Guide", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.09445, "se": 0.08229, "p": 0.2511, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:11", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "AI Text Video", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.03367, "se": 0.06094, "p": 0.5806, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:pooled", "h": "H4", "text": "Each intervention changes trust in online information relative to control.", "arm": "pooled", "outcome": "trust_online", "estimate": -0.03797, "se": 0.0202, "p": 0.06016, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H5:1", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "Flagging", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.01819, "se": 0.02691, "p": 0.4991, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:2", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "Provenance", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.04042, "se": 0.02948, "p": 0.1703, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:3", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "Automated Flagging", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.05006, "se": 0.03039, "p": 0.09948, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:4", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Accuracy Nudge", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.06608, "se": 0.02675, "p": 0.0135, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:5", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "Breathing Exercise", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.09096, "se": 0.03031, "p": 0.002688, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:6", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to 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"H5:10", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Guide", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.07876, "se": 0.03998, "p": 0.04885, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:11", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Text Video", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.005487, "se": 0.0247, "p": 0.8242, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H5:pooled", "h": "H5", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes detection of AI-generated posts relative to control.", "arm": "pooled", "outcome": "fake_score", "estimate": 0.03758, "se": 0.01056, "p": 0.0003708, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:1", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Flagging", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.02988, "se": 0.02637, "p": 0.2572, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:2", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Provenance", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.01246, "se": 0.02055, "p": 0.5443, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:3", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Automated Flagging", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": 0.0402, "se": 0.02259, "p": 0.07506, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:4", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Accuracy Nudge", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.01777, "se": 0.0265, "p": 0.5025, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:5", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Breathing Exercise", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.04769, "se": 0.03354, "p": 0.1551, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:6", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Mindfulness", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.04143, "se": 0.03209, "p": 0.1966, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:7", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "Inoculation", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": 0.0118, "se": 0.02765, "p": 0.6696, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:8", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.00098, "se": 0.027, "p": 0.971, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:9", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Infographic 2", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.0607, "se": 0.02591, "p": 0.01916, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:10", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Literacy Guide", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": 0.02059, "se": 0.02455, "p": 0.4015, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:11", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "AI Text Video", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": 0.02329, "se": 0.01779, "p": 0.1905, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "H6:pooled", "h": "H6", "text": "Not registered: each intervention changes recognition of authentic posts relative to control.", "arm": "pooled", "outcome": "real_score", "estimate": -0.006549, "se": 0.009754, "p": 0.502, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}], "synthetic": false, "authors": ["Yamil Velez"], "kind": "filedrawer_package", "files": {"data": ["data/clean.csv", "data/raw_tidy.csv", "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "inputs/replication_data.csv", "inputs/survey.qsf", "survey.qsf"], "scripts": ["original/code/create_replication_data.R", "original/code/replication_script.R", "run.sh", "scripts/01_tidy.py", "scripts/02_clean.py", "scripts/03_registered.py", "scripts/04_exploratory.py"], "docs": ["ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.md", "AGENTS.md", "README.md", "RUN.md", "codebook.md", "extensions/advance_design.txt", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "figures/design.txt", "inputs/pap.md", "original/site/index.html", "pap.md", "report.md", "review.md"], "n_files": 80, "n_data": 7, "n_scripts": 7, "data_formats": ["Qualtrics schema", "csv"], "languages": ["Python", "R", "shell"]}, "readme_excerpt": "Improving AI Discernment Survey experiment testing whether interventions from the misinformation literature improve people's ability to tell AI-generated images and videos from authentic news media. Twelve arms (control plus flagging, provenance, automated flagging, accuracy nudge, breathing, mindfulness, inoculation, three AI-literacy materials and an AI-text video) on a simulated social feed (\"FutureFeed\"); U.S. adults via CloudResearch, fielded 30 October to 21 November 2023; N = 2,030 analyzed. Columbia University IRB AAAU9484. This repository is a study package in the filedrawer layout. P", "summary": "Can misinformation-style interventions help people tell AI-generated media from authentic media? We ran a registered online survey experiment in a US panel, fielded October to November 2023. Eleven interventions, including flagging, provenance, automated detection labels, mindfulness and AI literacy materials, were compared with a no-intervention control on detection accuracy, attitudes toward AI, confidence in detection and trust in online information. Analysis N was 2,030. Automated Flagging raised accuracy by 4.4 points (95% CI [1.4, 7.3]) and the AI Literacy Guide by 4.7 points (95% CI [0.", "extraction": {"method": "study_json", "llm_used": false, "warnings": [], "bytes_read": 121690, "files_read": [{"path": "study.json", "bytes": 43571}, {"path": "report.md", "bytes": 48203}, {"path": "pap.json", "bytes": 20027}, {"path": "provenance/provenance.json", "bytes": 6609}, {"path": "README.md", "bytes": 3280}]}, "record_url": "/records/59ed1f62eb8a.json", "harvested_at": "2026-10-19T19:29:58Z", "id": "59ed1f62eb8a", "paper_url": "/records/59ed1f62eb8a/paper.md", "badges": [{"name": "provenance", "label": "provenance", "value": "fully agentic", "color": "indigo", "href": null}, {"name": "review", "label": "review", "value": "light pass \u00b7 12/12 claims supported", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "registration", "label": "plan", "value": "pre-registered #151,281", "color": "green", "href": "https://aspredicted.org/q2eh95.pdf"}, {"name": "release", "label": "status", "value": "draft", "color": "amber", "href": null}, {"name": "doi", "label": "DOI", "value": "10.5281/zenodo.23166168", "color": "blue", "href": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23166168"}, {"name": "design", "label": "design", "value": "survey experiment", "color": "slate", "href": null}, {"name": "data", "label": "data", "value": "open data", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "cost", "label": "model calls", "value": "$0.49", "color": "slate", "href": null}], "paper_base": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/yrvelez/ai-discernment/main/", "paper_source": "report.md", "readme_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/ai-discernment/blob/main/README.md"}, {"slug": "dialogue-through-disagreement", "title": "Dialogue Through Disagreement? A Chatbot as a Measurement Device for Persuasion", "source": "submitted", "repo_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement", "folder_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement/tree/main", "report_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement/blob/main/report.md", "data_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement/tree/main/data", "study_json_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement/blob/main/study.json", "release_status": "draft", "registration_status": "none", "extensions": [{"id": "advance_design", "kind": "mechanism", "label": "Design advance", "brief_id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Chatbot conversation versus a standard attitude scale as a persuasion measure", "hypothesis": "The op-ed shifts support toward the op-ed position within each chat condition. The chatbot adds no detectable shift beyond the scale. Counterargument content in chats tracks, but does not replace, the scale change.", "why": "Fixes the design and measurement causes: it adds the missing no-chatbot comparison and a pre-exposure baseline, and tests keyword use against attitude change.", "debate": null, "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "svg": "extensions/advance_design.svg", "text": "extensions/advance_design.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "kind": "boundary", "label": "Generalizability", "brief_id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Does the op-ed effect hold for respondents who oppose spending?", "hypothesis": "The op-ed raises support toward the op-ed position in both groups. The effect for anti-spending respondents is smaller than for pro-spending respondents (positive pro-by-treatment interaction).", "why": "Fixes the sample cause: the anti-spending group (n = 59) was too small to estimate its effect or the group difference.", "debate": null, "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "svg": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.svg", "text": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "addresses": []}], "sample_kind": "human", "causal": true, "design_diagram": "figures/design.svg", "design_diagram_text": "figures/design.txt", "review_claims": {"supported": 10, "total": 10, "open_analytical": 0, "on_revised_text": true, "corrected": 2}, "doi": null, "doi_version": null, "review_rounds": 1, "potential": {"verdict": "A follow-up is worth running, mainly for the attitude result, which is well above its MDE (0.64 vs 0.40) and robust to the pro-spending restriction. The certainty drop is marginal (ratio 1.03), and the claim that the chatbot is a measurement device is untested because both arms chat and attitudes are measured only once. Run the chatbot-versus-standard-scale experiment first: it adds the missing no-chatbot arm and a pre-exposure baseline, and replaces keyword counts with validated coding. The balanced anti-spending sample comes second. The literature retrieved does not bear on the question, so no theoretical debate can be identified from it.", "causes": ["power", "design", "measurement", "framing"], "debates": [], "briefs": [{"id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Chatbot conversation versus a standard attitude scale as a persuasion measure", "needs_qsf": true}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Does the op-ed effect hold for respondents who oppose spending?", "needs_qsf": true}]}, "registration_url": null, "provenance_mode": "fully_agentic", "reviewer_pass": true, "cost_usd": 0.369, "tokens_in": 99125, "tokens_out": 25453, "design_type": "survey_experiment", "population": "online_panel", "country": "US", "constructs": ["ai_generated_content", "deliberation", "persuasion", "policy_support"], "keywords": ["chatbot", "op-ed", "persuasion", "infrastructure spending", "certainty"], "n": 446, "created": "2026-10-08", "hypotheses": {"registered": 0, "unregistered": 4, "deviation": 0, "robustness": 0, "exploratory": 2, "supported": 4}, "tests": [{"id": "H1", "h": "H1", "text": "Op-ed + chatbot raises movement toward op-ed position vs placebo.", "arm": "", "outcome": "toward_counterarg", "estimate": 0.6379, "se": 0.1388, "p": 4.279e-06, "supported": true, "tag": "unregistered"}, {"id": "H2", "h": "H2", "text": "Op-ed + chatbot lowers certainty.", "arm": "", "outcome": "certainty", "estimate": -5.311, "se": 1.825, "p": 0.003617, "supported": true, "tag": "unregistered"}, {"id": "H3", "h": "H3", "text": "Op-ed + chatbot raises counterargument keyword recall.", "arm": "", "outcome": "counterarg_keyword", "estimate": 0.1657, "se": 0.03463, "p": 1.709e-06, "supported": true, "tag": "unregistered"}, {"id": "H4", "h": "H4", "text": "Op-ed + chatbot changes supportive keyword recall.", "arm": "", "outcome": "supportive_keyword", "estimate": 0.2666, "se": 0.03641, "p": 2.405e-13, "supported": true, "tag": "unregistered"}], "synthetic": false, "authors": ["Yamil R. Velez", "Patrick Liu"], "kind": "filedrawer_package", "files": {"data": ["data/clean.csv", "data/raw_tidy.csv", "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf"], "scripts": ["scripts/01_tidy.py", "scripts/02_clean.py", "scripts/03_registered.py", "scripts/04_exploratory.py"], "docs": ["AGENTS.md", "RUN.md", "codebook.md", "extensions/advance_design.txt", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "figures/design.txt", "pap.md", "report.md", "review.md"], "n_files": 53, "n_data": 4, "n_scripts": 4, "data_formats": ["Qualtrics schema", "csv"], "languages": ["Python"]}, "summary": "Can a chatbot conversation serve as a measurement device for persuasion, and does an op-ed arguing against a person's own view shift their attitudes? We ran a survey experiment on US adults from a CloudResearch online panel. Participants read either an op-ed against their own position or an unrelated placebo article, and then talked with a chatbot. Of 449 respondents, 446 were analysed. Compared with placebo, the op-ed arm moved support toward the op-ed position by 0.64 points (95% CI [0.37, 0.91], p", "extraction": {"method": "study_json", "llm_used": false, "warnings": [], "bytes_read": 62726, "files_read": [{"path": "study.json", "bytes": 13742}, {"path": "report.md", "bytes": 34764}, {"path": "pap.json", "bytes": 9125}, {"path": "provenance/provenance.json", "bytes": 5095}]}, "record_url": "/records/238278824ba5.json", "harvested_at": "2026-10-19T19:29:59Z", "id": "238278824ba5", "paper_url": "/records/238278824ba5/paper.md", "badges": [{"name": "provenance", "label": "provenance", "value": "fully agentic", "color": "indigo", "href": null}, {"name": "review", "label": "review", "value": "light pass \u00b7 2 corrected \u00b7 10/10 claims supported", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "registration", "label": "plan", "value": "reconstructed", "color": "amber", "href": null}, {"name": "release", "label": "status", "value": "draft", "color": "amber", "href": null}, {"name": "design", "label": "design", "value": "survey experiment", "color": "slate", "href": null}, {"name": "data", "label": "data", "value": "open data", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "cost", "label": "model calls", "value": "$0.37", "color": "slate", "href": null}], "paper_base": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/yrvelez/dialogue-through-disagreement/main/", "paper_source": "report.md"}, {"slug": "fact-networks-conjoint", "title": "Who Shares What From Whom: An Ego-Network Conjoint of Misinformation Sharing", "source": "submitted", "repo_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint", "folder_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/tree/main", "report_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/blob/main/report.md", "data_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/tree/main/data", "study_json_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/blob/main/study.json", "release_status": "draft", "registration_status": "registered", "extensions": [{"id": "advance_design", "kind": "mechanism", "label": "Design advance", "brief_id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Randomized source cues and separate sharing and belief measures", "hypothesis": "Source trust and tie strength raise sharing intent more than perceived accuracy, especially for the false headline.", "why": "Fixes the design and measurement causes. Randomizing source cues turns the descriptive trust and tie contrasts into causal effects. Rating sharing and accuracy separately on 1\u20137 scales lets the two outcomes diverge.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "svg": "extensions/advance_design.svg", "text": "extensions/advance_design.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "kind": "boundary", "label": "Generalizability", "brief_id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Replication across populations and languages", "hypothesis": "The misinformation sharing penalty is negative in all groups, and it is smaller among Spanish-language Latino respondents than among English-language Latino respondents. High sharer trust is associated with more sharing in all groups.", "why": "Fixes the sample cause. 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Randomizing source ideology and measuring both outcomes lets sharing diverge from belief when sources are co-partisan, which the original could not test.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/theoretical_debate.qsf", "svg": "extensions/theoretical_debate.svg", "text": "extensions/theoretical_debate.txt", "addresses": []}], "sample_kind": "human", "causal": true, "design_diagram": "figures/design.svg", "design_diagram_text": "figures/design.txt", "review_claims": {"supported": 12, "total": 12, "open_analytical": 0, "on_revised_text": true, "corrected": 3}, "doi": null, "doi_version": null, "review_rounds": 1, "potential": {"verdict": "A follow-up is worth running. The headline result is solid: misinformation is shared and believed about 18 points less, and the study's main gap is causal inference about sources, since every sharer attribute was measured rather than assigned. Run Randomized source cues and separate sharing and belief measures first. It randomizes trust and tie, which carried the only notable sharer signals (+5.7 and +3.0 points), and it separates sharing from belief, which the forced-choice outcomes here conflate. 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"media_trust", "misinformation", "partisanship", "social_norms"], "keywords": ["misinformation", "sharing", "conjoint", "ego network", "social networks", "fact-check", "source credibility", "Latino"], "n": 1500, "created": "2026-10-08", "hypotheses": {"registered": 40, "unregistered": 0, "deviation": 0, "robustness": 0, "exploratory": 18, "supported": 22}, "tests": [{"id": "H1:Misinformation", "h": "H1", "text": "AMCE of information type on sharing: each level against 'True/neutral', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Misinformation", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.1822, "se": 0.01128, "p": 1.091e-58, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H1:Fact-check", "h": "H1", "text": "AMCE of information type on sharing: each level against 'True/neutral', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Fact-check", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.1334, "se": 0.01139, "p": 1.186e-31, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H2:Close tie", "h": "H2", "text": "AMCE of tie strength on sharing: each level against 'Distant tie', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Close tie", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.03023, "se": 0.01026, "p": 0.003212, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H3:Continental US", "h": "H3", "text": "AMCE of sharer origin on sharing: each level against 'Foreign origin', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Continental US", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.001891, "se": 0.008051, "p": 0.8143, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:Moderate sharer", "h": "H4", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on sharing: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Moderate sharer", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.01944, "se": 0.009155, "p": 0.03372, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H4:Conservative sharer", "h": "H4", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on sharing: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Conservative sharer", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.006588, "se": 0.01094, "p": 0.547, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H5:Trust: mid", "h": "H5", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on sharing: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Trust: mid", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.03597, "se": 0.01883, "p": 0.05609, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H5:Trust: high", "h": "H5", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on sharing: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Trust: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.05682, "se": 0.01723, "p": 0.0009742, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H6:Knowledge: mid", "h": "H6", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on sharing: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Knowledge: mid", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.0004843, "se": 0.01015, "p": 0.9619, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H6:Knowledge: high", "h": "H6", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on sharing: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Knowledge: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.0171, "se": 0.01119, "p": 0.1265, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H7:Conspiracy belief: high", "h": "H7", "text": "AMCE of sharer belief in disputed claims on sharing: each level against 'Conspiracy belief: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Conspiracy belief: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.00153, "se": 0.009033, "p": 0.8655, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H8:Misinformation", "h": "H8", "text": "AMCE of information type on plausibility: each level against 'True/neutral', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Misinformation", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.1858, "se": 0.01123, "p": 1.804e-61, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H8:Fact-check", "h": "H8", "text": "AMCE of information type on plausibility: each level against 'True/neutral', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Fact-check", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.1244, "se": 0.01144, "p": 1.545e-27, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H9:Close tie", "h": "H9", "text": "AMCE of tie strength on plausibility: each level against 'Distant tie', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Close tie", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.02751, "se": 0.01035, "p": 0.00788, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H10:Continental US", "h": "H10", "text": "AMCE of sharer origin on plausibility: each level against 'Foreign origin', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Continental US", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.002675, "se": 0.008265, "p": 0.7462, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H11:Moderate sharer", "h": "H11", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on plausibility: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Moderate sharer", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.02109, "se": 0.009458, "p": 0.02573, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H11:Conservative sharer", "h": "H11", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on plausibility: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Conservative sharer", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.0193, "se": 0.01128, "p": 0.08696, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H12:Trust: mid", "h": "H12", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on plausibility: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Trust: mid", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.005871, "se": 0.0184, "p": 0.7497, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H12:Trust: high", "h": "H12", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on plausibility: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Trust: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.02534, "se": 0.01663, "p": 0.1276, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H13:Knowledge: mid", "h": "H13", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on plausibility: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Knowledge: mid", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.00106, "se": 0.0102, "p": 0.9172, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H13:Knowledge: high", "h": "H13", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on plausibility: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Knowledge: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.0168, "se": 0.01077, "p": 0.1188, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "H14:Conspiracy belief: high", "h": "H14", "text": "AMCE of sharer belief in disputed claims on plausibility: each level against 'Conspiracy belief: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent.", "arm": "Conspiracy belief: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.0003431, "se": 0.009118, "p": 0.97, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R1:Close tie", "h": "R1", "text": "AMCE of tie strength on sharing: each level against 'Distant tie', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the realized", "arm": "Close tie", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.03016, "se": 0.01026, "p": 0.003295, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R2:Continental US", "h": "R2", "text": "AMCE of sharer origin on sharing: each level against 'Foreign origin', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the real", "arm": "Continental US", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.003053, "se": 0.008086, "p": 0.7058, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R3:Moderate sharer", "h": "R3", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on sharing: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the re", "arm": "Moderate sharer", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.01749, "se": 0.009153, "p": 0.05604, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R3:Conservative sharer", "h": "R3", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on sharing: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the re", "arm": "Conservative sharer", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.006513, "se": 0.01095, "p": 0.552, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R4:Trust: mid", "h": "R4", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on sharing: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the realiz", "arm": "Trust: mid", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.03435, "se": 0.01836, "p": 0.06142, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R4:Trust: high", "h": "R4", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on sharing: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of the realiz", "arm": "Trust: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.06703, "se": 0.01721, "p": 9.792e-05, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R5:Knowledge: mid", "h": "R5", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on sharing: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the invers", "arm": "Knowledge: mid", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.0005128, "se": 0.01012, "p": 0.9596, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R5:Knowledge: high", "h": "R5", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on sharing: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the invers", "arm": "Knowledge: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.01684, "se": 0.01135, "p": 0.1381, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R6:Conspiracy belief: high", "h": "R6", "text": "AMCE of sharer belief in disputed claims on sharing: each level against 'Conspiracy belief: low', from the regression of sharing on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted", "arm": "Conspiracy belief: high", "outcome": "share", "estimate": -0.001391, "se": 0.009072, "p": 0.8781, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R7:Close tie", "h": "R7", "text": "AMCE of tie strength on plausibility: each level against 'Distant tie', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of th", "arm": "Close tie", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.02741, "se": 0.01035, "p": 0.008106, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R8:Continental US", "h": "R8", "text": "AMCE of sharer origin on plausibility: each level against 'Foreign origin', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse o", "arm": "Continental US", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.002706, "se": 0.008336, "p": 0.7455, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R9:Moderate sharer", "h": "R9", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on plausibility: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse", "arm": "Moderate sharer", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.02059, "se": 0.009512, "p": 0.03041, "supported": true, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R9:Conservative sharer", "h": "R9", "text": "AMCE of sharer ideology on plausibility: each level against 'Liberal sharer', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse", "arm": "Conservative sharer", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.01945, "se": 0.01128, "p": 0.08465, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R10:Trust: mid", "h": "R10", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on plausibility: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of ", "arm": "Trust: mid", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.008207, "se": 0.01789, "p": 0.6465, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R10:Trust: high", "h": "R10", "text": "AMCE of trust in sharer on plausibility: each level against 'Trust: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by the inverse of ", "arm": "Trust: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.02912, "se": 0.01655, "p": 0.07854, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R11:Knowledge: mid", "h": "R11", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on plausibility: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by ", "arm": "Knowledge: mid", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.001285, "se": 0.01029, "p": 0.9006, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R11:Knowledge: high", "h": "R11", "text": "AMCE of sharer political knowledge on plausibility: each level against 'Knowledge: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; re-weighted by ", "arm": "Knowledge: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.01538, "se": 0.01094, "p": 0.1596, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "R12:Conspiracy belief: high", "h": "R12", "text": "AMCE of sharer belief in disputed claims on plausibility: each level against 'Conspiracy belief: low', from the regression of plausibility on all seven profile features, SEs clustered by respondent; r", "arm": "Conspiracy belief: high", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.0006339, "se": 0.009207, "p": 0.9451, "supported": false, "tag": "registered"}, {"id": "X1", "h": "X1", "text": "A1. Source credibility is conditional on content uncertainty: the slope of sharing on trust in the sharer (1-5), net of the other source attributes, and how it differs by information type.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.0142, "se": 0.003729, "p": 0.0001404, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X2", "h": "X2", "text": "A1. The slope of plausibility on trust in the sharer, by information type.", "arm": "", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.01299, "se": 0.003692, "p": 0.0004328, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X3", "h": "X3", "text": "A1. The close-tie premium on sharing, net of the other source attributes, by information type.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.02888, "se": 0.01047, "p": 0.005821, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X4:Misinformation", "h": "X4", "text": "A2. Sharing without believing: among profiles chosen to share, the probability that the respondent judged the other post more plausible, by information type, net of source attributes, media trust and ", "arm": "Misinformation", "outcome": "share_not_believe", "estimate": 0.05529, "se": 0.0129, "p": 1.806e-05, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X4:Fact-check", "h": "X4", "text": "A2. Sharing without believing: among profiles chosen to share, the probability that the respondent judged the other post more plausible, by information type, net of source attributes, media trust and ", "arm": "Fact-check", "outcome": "share_not_believe", "estimate": 0.01734, "se": 0.01145, "p": 0.13, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X5:Congruent", "h": "X5", "text": "A3. Co-ideological messenger: sharing when the respondent and the sharer lean the same way (both liberal or both conservative) against opposite leans; pairs involving a moderate form a third group. Ce", "arm": "Congruent", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.04387, "se": 0.01799, "p": 0.01477, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X5:Neutral (a moderate)", "h": "X5", "text": "A3. Co-ideological messenger: sharing when the respondent and the sharer lean the same way (both liberal or both conservative) against opposite leans; pairs involving a moderate form a third group. Ce", "arm": "Neutral (a moderate)", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.007918, "se": 0.01592, "p": 0.6191, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X6", "h": "X6", "text": "A4. Ego-network composition: the respondent's six named contacts as a measured network. Among misinformation profiles, sharing on the network's mean perceived belief in disputed claims, net of network", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.1096, "se": 0.04923, "p": 0.026, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X7", "h": "X7", "text": "B1. Message x respondent congruence: among partisan respondents shown partisan-slanted headlines, sharing of congenial against uncongenial content (headline slant from the paper's preliminary automate", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.02513, "se": 0.01854, "p": 0.1753, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X8", "h": "X8", "text": "B2. A conspiracy-prone source: the slope of sharing on the sharer's perceived belief in disputed claims (0-1), net of the other source attributes, by information type.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.005297, "se": 0.01402, "p": 0.7055, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X9", "h": "X9", "text": "B2. The slope of plausibility on the sharer's perceived belief in disputed claims, by information type.", "arm": "", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": -0.005194, "se": 0.01435, "p": 0.7173, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X10", "h": "X10", "text": "B2, claim-specific (thin): for the anti-vaccine (polio) misinformation headline, plausibility when the sharer is seen as believing 'Covid-19 vaccines modify your DNA' against not.", "arm": "", "outcome": "plausibility", "estimate": 0.1654, "se": 0.06665, "p": 0.0131, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X11", "h": "X11", "text": "B3. Health vs. political misinformation: among misinformation profiles, the trust slope on sharing for health (guanabana, polio) and political headlines.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.01919, "se": 0.007748, "p": 0.01328, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X12", "h": "X12", "text": "B3. Among misinformation profiles, the close-tie premium for health and political headlines.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.0348, "se": 0.01698, "p": 0.04047, "supported": true, "tag": "exploratory"}, {"id": "X13", "h": "X13", "text": "B4. Sharer origin (continental US vs. elsewhere) and sharing, by survey language and by the respondent's nativity.", "arm": "", "outcome": "share", "estimate": 0.002186, "se": 0.008008, "p": 0.7849, "supported": false, "tag": "exploratory"}], "synthetic": false, "authors": ["Yamil R. Velez"], "kind": "filedrawer_package", "files": {"data": ["data/clean.csv", "data/raw_tidy.csv", "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "extensions/theoretical_debate.qsf", "inputs/survey.qsf", "survey.qsf"], "scripts": ["inputs/build_pap.py", "inputs/build_qsf.py", "inputs/prepare_export.R", "run.sh", "scripts/01_tidy.py", "scripts/02_clean.py", "scripts/03_registered.py", "scripts/04_exploratory.py"], "docs": ["AGENTS.md", "README.md", "RUN.md", "codebook.md", "extensions/advance_design.txt", "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "extensions/theoretical_debate.txt", "figures/design.txt", "inputs/pap.md", "pap.md", "report.md", "review.md"], "n_files": 192, "n_data": 7, "n_scripts": 8, "data_formats": ["Qualtrics schema", "csv"], "languages": ["Python", "R", "shell"]}, "readme_excerpt": "Who Shares What From Whom: An Ego-Network Conjoint of Misinformation Sharing Study repository in the filedrawer layout. The package (report, tidy data, scripts, results, provenance) is generated at the root of this repository by the pipeline; the inputs live in inputs/. Depositing with an AI coding agent, or by hand: follow AGENTS.md in this repository. It says what must never be committed (the raw export), how to strip identifiers, and what the models see. Inputs (inputs/) export.csv Qualtrics export (raw; gitignored, it contains identifiers) survey.qsf survey schema pap.md pre-analysis plan ", "summary": "This study asks how the type of information, and who shares it, shape willingness to share a post and judgments of its plausibility. We ran a conjoint experiment in which 1,500 US Latino (Hispanic) adults each rated 8 profiles (12,000 in all) in a YouGov sample, surveyed in English or Spanish. Only the headline type was randomized; the sharer's tie strength, origin, ideology, trust, knowledge and belief in disputed claims are measured attributes of the respondent's real contacts. Compared with true or neutral headlines, misinformation was chosen 18.2 points less often (95% CI [\u221220.4, \u221216.0]) a", "extraction": {"method": "study_json", "llm_used": false, "warnings": [], "bytes_read": 281931, "files_read": [{"path": "study.json", "bytes": 48418}, {"path": "report.md", "bytes": 118012}, {"path": "pap.json", "bytes": 104010}, {"path": "provenance/provenance.json", "bytes": 9037}, {"path": "README.md", "bytes": 2454}]}, "record_url": "/records/23399b54b3f4.json", "harvested_at": "2026-10-19T19:30:00Z", "id": "23399b54b3f4", "paper_url": "/records/23399b54b3f4/paper.md", "badges": [{"name": "provenance", "label": "provenance", "value": "fully agentic", "color": "indigo", "href": null}, {"name": "review", "label": "review", "value": "light pass \u00b7 3 corrected \u00b7 12/12 claims supported", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "registration", "label": "plan", "value": "pre-registered #132,508", "color": "green", "href": "https://aspredicted.org/8njc-mpqw.pdf"}, {"name": "release", "label": "status", "value": "draft", "color": "amber", "href": null}, {"name": "design", "label": "design", "value": "conjoint", "color": "slate", "href": null}, {"name": "data", "label": "data", "value": "open data", "color": "green", "href": null}, {"name": "cost", "label": "model calls", "value": "$1.41", "color": "slate", "href": null}], "paper_base": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/main/", "paper_source": "report.md", "readme_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/fact-networks-conjoint/blob/main/README.md"}, {"slug": "scientific-trust-messages", "title": "Can Trust in Science Be Improved? An Adaptive Experiment Testing Student-Designed Messages", "source": "submitted", "repo_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/scientific-trust-messages", "folder_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/scientific-trust-messages/tree/main", "report_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/scientific-trust-messages/blob/main/report.md", "data_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/scientific-trust-messages/tree/main/data", "study_json_url": "https://github.com/yrvelez/scientific-trust-messages/blob/main/study.json", "release_status": "draft", "registration_status": "registered", "extensions": [{"id": "advance_design", "kind": "mechanism", "label": "Design advance", "brief_id": "advance_design", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Replicating the short student videos with a delayed follow-up and a behavioural outcome", "hypothesis": "Each video raises immediate trust relative to control (position a). Under position b, contrasts are near zero after Holm correction. Effects at 7 days are smaller than or equal to immediate effects.", "why": "Addresses power and measurement. It concentrates the sample on the two best-supported arms plus the peer-review video, tests them against control in a confirmatory design, and adds a delayed and a behavioural outcome.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/advance_design.qsf", "svg": "extensions/advance_design.svg", "text": "extensions/advance_design.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "generalizability_conditional", "kind": "boundary", "label": "Generalizability", "brief_id": "generalizability_conditional", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Does partisanship moderate the student-video effect?", "hypothesis": "The video raises trust more among Republican-leaning respondents than among non-Republicans (positive interaction). Under the null (position b) the interaction and the main effect are near zero.", "why": "Addresses the missing moderator and the sample. The exploratory interaction of 0.165 in the Science in everyday life arm is untested confirmatory, and partisan effects bear on where the result holds.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.qsf", "svg": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.svg", "text": "extensions/generalizability_conditional.txt", "addresses": []}, {"id": "theoretical_debate", "kind": "alternative", "label": "Theoretical debate", "brief_id": "theoretical_debate", "mode": "survey_experiment", "title": "Format versus content: separating persuasion from salience", "hypothesis": "If content drives the effect (position a), only the two science-framing cells raise trust relative to control and neutral cells. If salience or format alone drives it, neutral cells also move trust. If beliefs resist (position b), all contrasts are near zero.", "why": "Addresses design confounding. It tests whether the small gains reflect content or merely an attention cue, which discriminates between the brief-messages-work and beliefs-resist positions.", "debate": "D1", "status": "proposed", "qsf": "extensions/theoretical_debate.qsf", "svg": "extensions/theoretical_debate.svg", "text": "extensions/theoretical_debate.txt", "addresses": []}], "sample_kind": "human", "causal": true, "design_diagram": "figures/design.svg", "design_diagram_text": "figures/design.txt", "review_claims": {"supported": 11, "total": 11, "open_analytical": 0, "on_revised_text": true, "corrected": 4}, "doi": null, "doi_version": null, "review_rounds": 1, "potential": {"verdict": "A follow-up is worth running, but a narrow one. The study's main result is that most messages do nothing detectable. Only the 'Can You Trust Science Too Much?' video survives multiplicity, and its negative effect (-0.171) is more credible than the gains of about 0.06. Run the replication of the two student videos with a delayed and a behavioural outcome first, because it tests the only consistent positive signal at adequate power. Then run the format-versus-content test and the partisanship moderation test. 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An adaptive survey experiment on Lucid (November-December 2021) testing 32 brief messages, designed by students in an undergraduate experiments course, against a pure control on a 6-item trust-in-science scale. Findings are in report.md. Pre-registered on OSF: https://osf.io/5yvh9 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/5YVH9, 2021-11-20), amended by https://osf.io/w82xv (assignment algorithm) and https://osf.io/5wr2k (Lin covariate adjustment). inputs", "summary": "Can brief, student-designed messages raise trust in science? We ran a registered online survey experiment with US adults recruited through Lucid, randomly assigning respondents to one of 32 messages (videos, texts, memes, posters and infographics) or a pure control that only asked them to continue. Of 11,519 raw responses, 8,572 were analysed. Trust in science was measured after treatment on a scale where the control mean was 3.685. 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